همایش آروین البرز EAB JOURNAL 2 1 2026 05 07 A Structural DSGE Model for Iran’s Economy: Integrating Dual Exchange Rates, Sanctions, and the Informal Sector A Structural DSGE Model for Iran’s Economy: Integrating Dual Exchange Rates, Sanctions, and the Informal Sector 80 96 10.22051/jera.2021.31891.2698 FA Nastaran 1Department of Agricultural Economics, International Campus of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran 2026 05 07 This paper develops an advanced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the structural characteristics of Iran’s economy. The model incorporates a dual exchange rate system, international sanctions, a large informal sector, and fuel subsidy reforms—features often omitted in standard DSGE frameworks. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods with Iranian macroeconomic data and external forecasts. Our results show significant improvements in forecasting performance and policy analysis, particularly for scenarios involving sanctions relief, subsidy reforms, and exchange rate unification. The model provides a rigorous yet adaptable framework for understanding and predicting Iran’s economic dynamics under structural and policy shocks. This paper develops an advanced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the structural characteristics of Iran’s economy. The model incorporates a dual exchange rate system, international sanctions, a large informal sector, and fuel subsidy reforms—features often omitted in standard DSGE frameworks. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods with Iranian macroeconomic data and external forecasts. Our results show significant improvements in forecasting performance and policy analysis, particularly for scenarios involving sanctions relief, subsidy reforms, and exchange rate unification. The model provides a rigorous yet adaptable framework for understanding and predicting Iran’s economic dynamics under structural and policy shocks. /downloadfilepdf/18408